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‘Monte Carlo Simulation’ Predicting on the Movement of Investments – During the Covid Pandemic in Indonesia

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Date
2021-10-23
Author
Ilmi, Zainal
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Abstract
The movement of the net asset value (NAV) of mutual fund products (MFP) whether high or low in the Covid-19 pandemic conditions in 2020. With the support of the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), this study intends to predict the rate of return on mutual fund investment (MFI) providing a choice of the average demand for return on mutual funds (MFR) that investors need. Analysis of the prediction of NAV movements and the rate of return on MFI in 55 MFP with a trial frequency of 48 times, we get an estimate of the average demand for MFR of 37 out of 100 cumulative numbers of probability distributions. The result is 77.08 percent, and an estimated average MFR in Indonesia during the 2020 Covid-19, the simulation got was IDR 421,954. The contribution resulted in a vital discovery of NAV in Indonesia in response to the economic recession affected by Covid-19..
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http://repository.unmul.ac.id/handle/123456789/36545
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  • A - Economics and Business [669]

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Repository Universitas Mulawarman copyright ©   LP3M Universitas Mulawarman
Jalan Kuaro Kotak Pos 1068
Telp. (0541) 741118
Fax. (0541) 747479 - 732870
Samarinda 75119, Kalimantan Timur, Indonesia
Contact Us | Send Feedback