Forecasting the Hotel Room Reservation Rate in East Kalimantan Using Double Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Abstract: Forecasting the room reservation rate is an important thing for the Central Statistics Agency of East Kalimantan Province because it can affect the income of the hotel and the existing regional economic indicators. In this study, we used Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method to predict the reservation rate. DES Method uses an alpha constant value that randomly selected in the calculation process. To forecast the room reservation rate in January 2019, we used the data from 2014 to 2018 with the alpha values 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7 and 0.9. The error forecasting results of each alpha value are calculated using the Mean Squared Error method (MSE). The study results the forecasting alpha 0.1 with an MSE error value of 19.278478603164 and the best forecasting value of reservation rate for January 2019 is 52,263.