Sustaining Agricultural Growth: Traps of Socio-Demographics in Emerging Markets

Abstract

This research aims to evaluate the effect of the global innovation index (GII), urban population (UP), rural population (RP), social globalization index (SGI), and Demographic Pressures (DP) on agriculture value added (AVA). The samples were collected from The Global Economy relating to four countries, namely, China, Indonesia, USA, and India during 2013-2020. The collected data were analyzed through comparative panel regression. The results show that, in the long term, the increase in UP is significantly correlated with AVA in China, Indonesia, and India. Then, an increase in RP is significantly associated with AVA in India, and SGI exerts a significant effect on AVA in the USA. In the short term, every increase in GII has a significant effect on AVA in Indonesia and the USA. Furthermore, RP has a significant impact on AVA in China. A case study in India, reported that a decrease in SGI and DP significantly affect AVA. Meanwhile, the short-term DP growth greatly influences the AVA in the USA. The novelty of this research lies in the finding that the agricultural sector's tendency expands our knowledge of how many agricultural clusters in rural communities change their functions as a large number of rural residents relocate to metropolitan areas. Further, the debate over the HR industry's level of competition does not create job possibilities. In China, Indonesia, and the USA, DP enhances AVA. Stakeholders are required to reduce housing density through innovative agriculture concepts that are more humanistic and creative, even though DP only suppresses AVA in India.