Comparing of ARIMA and RBFNN for short-term forecasting

Abstract

Based on a combination of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), a time-series forecasting model is proposed. The proposed model has examined using simulated time series data of tourist arrival to Indonesia recently published by BPS Indonesia. The results demonstrate that the proposed RBFNN is more competent in modelling and forecasting time series than an ARIMA model which is indicated by mean square error (MSE) values. Based on the results obtained, RBFNN model is recommended as an alternative to existing method because it has a simple structure and can produce reasonable forecasts.